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Pack Intelligence · Version 1.0

TCG Card Shop Simulator Pull Probability Calculator

The Pack Odds Calculator gives you the chance in one pack. This page turns that number into the answers players actually look for: what a full run gives you, how many packs a confidence level needs, and how unusual a long dry streak is.

Prefilled from the Pack Odds Calculator.

What do you want to know?
Target
Choose a targetAny of my missing cards

One-pack chance

1.78%

The number this page multiplies. It comes from the current pack model.

Advanced: use a custom probability

Percent per pack. Use this only for a rate you already know; the default comes from the game data.

%

What does a run of packs give you?

Custom

83.47%

chance of pulling at least one

This is likely

16.53%

chance of pulling none

16.53% of runs this long end with no hit at all.

Pack counts that answer the real question

The same one-pack chance, read at the confidence levels players actually plan around.

50% chance
39
75% chance
78
90% chance
128
95% chance
167
99% chance
256
Average first hit
56

The expected number of packs to the first success across many repeated runs. It is not how many packs you need, and it is not a guarantee.

Probability curve

Chance of at least one hit as the number of packs grows. The markers are the confidence levels above.

100 packs · 83.47% chance of at least one50%: 39 packs75%: 78 packs90%: 128 packs95%: 167 packs

Drag the slider or pick a point on the curve to move the result.

Probability table

The same curve as numbers, with pack counts chosen for this probability.

PacksAt least oneNone
2030.24%69.76%
5059.35%40.65%
10083.47%16.53%
20097.27%2.73%
30099.55%0.45%

Any of my missing cards

Reads the collection tracked in this browser, keeps the missing prints this pack can produce, and reports the chance that one pack adds at least one of them.

Reading the collection tracked in this browser…

Reading the result

Average is not a guarantee

The average first hit is 1 / p. With a 0.1% one-pack chance that is 1,000 packs, but 1,000 packs only reach about 63% confidence. The average is where the pulls pile up across many runs, not a finish line.

Why 1 in N does not mean N packs

Independence cuts both ways: the packs you already opened are not a progress bar. Each unopened pack carries the same chance as the first one did.

Nobody is owed the average

Opening more than the average and still having nothing is a normal result of a random process, not a fault. The "no hit" reading on this page puts that in numbers.

This page estimates hits, not completions

Hitting at least one target is one question. Completing a whole set is a different, much harder one: duplicates, several targets and pack correlation all matter. That is a separate tool, and this page does not pretend to answer it.

Pull probability questions

How do you calculate the chance after multiple packs?
With 1 - (1 - p)^N, where p is the chance in one pack and N is the number of packs. The packs are assumed independent, which the current rules support because there is no pity, no escalating chance and no persistent modifier.
Does "1 in 500" mean I will get one after 500 packs?
No. It means the average first hit is around 500 packs across many runs. At 500 packs the chance of at least one is close to 63%, so a large share of runs still have none.
What is the chance after the average number of packs?
For a small p it is close to 63.2%, because 1 - (1 - 1/N)^N approaches 1 - 1/e. The calculator uses your exact p rather than the approximation.
How many packs give me a 50% chance?
ceil(ln(0.5) / ln(1 - p)) packs, which the "Packs for X% chance" mode reports for 50, 75, 90, 95 and 99%.
Can I ever reach a guaranteed 100%?
Not with a finite number of independent packs. Any p below 1 leaves a chance of a long dry streak. Use 99% or 99.9% when you want a practical target.
Why can I open more than the average and still get nothing?
Because a random process does not stop at an average. Packs do not remember the ones you opened, so a run past the average is uncommon but entirely normal.
Does this account for God Packs and Ghost routes?
Yes. The one-pack probability comes from the Pack Probability Engine, so the God Pack override and the Ghost injection are already inside the number this page multiplies. Pack Odds Calculator
Can I calculate several missing cards at once?
Yes. "Any of my missing cards" builds the target set from your tracked collection and the engine combines it as a union, which is the chance that one pack adds at least one missing print. Missing Card Finder
Can this tell me how many packs complete the whole collection?
No. Completing a set is a different problem that involves duplicates, many targets and pack correlation. This calculator estimates hitting at least one target, and a full completion simulator is a separate tool.

Related tools

Pack Odds CalculatorCard PacksMissing Card FinderGhost CardsGod PacksCollection Tracker

Every number is computed from the verified pack model and your own inputs. Packs are assumed independent under the current rules. This is an unofficial fan-made tool and does not touch your game save.